I really hate to be a party pooper (I know you’ve noticed) but there is going to be a war with Iran.
Have you ever seen a snowball begin to roll down a hill, gradually gathering speed and growing ever bigger until it becomes unstoppable? That’s what happened back in 2002-2003, when the idea of war with Iraq began to roll, imperceptibly at first, but with just enough impetus to keep it going until it became unstoppable.
A similar snowball is rolling ever more rapidly today. It’s just about to reach the point of no return. It has Iran’s name on it.
The BBC was last night reporting a huge buildup of Israeli weaponry and troops close to Syria’s eastern border (though there’s been no mention of it on their website). Only last week Israeli warplanes attacked Syria in a mission no-one inside Israel is talking about. Whatever that mission achieved is so hush-hush even the usual moles aren’t chattering.
There will be some outside the Israeli cabinet who know the score. You can be sure of that. They live and work at the Pentagon, and at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C..
You can be sure they know; have known, for quite some time.
While the talk is of the British pulling out of Basra, 350 UK troops have been deployed to the Iranian border, ostensibly to dissuade Iranian weapons’ smugglers from entering Iraq. According to the Independent newspaper:
“……The operation is regarded as a high-risk strategy which could lead to clashes with Iranian-backed Shia militias or even Iranian forces…….”
The US is, meanwhile, busy constructing a base four miles from the Iraq-Iran border.
It is likely the attack, when it comes, will take one of two possible courses: a US airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and surrounding areas, with a simultaneous assault by the Israelis on Syrian military establishments. Or, the Israelis may well carry out the air assault on Iran, with their military buildup on the Syrian border a defense against repercussions from, or through, Syria.
Either way, it will be viewed in the Middle East as an Israeli/US/EU venture and is likely to fire up a bonfire of sectarian violence and terrorism that will undoubtedly have dreadful repercussions all around the world.
George Bush knows he can now count on French president Sarkozy’s support, which in turn will bring in some measure of European political acquiescence.
Once more, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is desperately attempting to cool the political hotheads, just as he did back in 2003. America and Britain turned deaf ears back then, preferring to utilize their own suspect and fabricated evidence for Saddam’s WMD’s, than listen to the world’s leading authority.
Yet again, there are no WMD’s. Iran is using nuclear technology for, it says, purely peaceful purposes. Western and Israeli politicians aren’t happy with that because Iran might renege on its promise. Of course, as the old saying goes: it takes one political broken promise to know another, so we must assume the West and Israel are experts on the subject.
Timing for a war with Iran is all important. There’s an American presidential election due in just over a year and for the Republicans to hold onto power means being in a war that’s going well just at that moment. Obviously, public focus has to be switched well away from Iraq, which with the possible exception of Vietnam, must rank in US history as the war that’s continually gone least well.
The snowball has started rolling. Is there still time to stop it in its tracks? Or, has its momentum and mass gone past the critical?
I believe it has.
But then, I may just turn out to be a party pooper.
Filed under: Inevitable consequences