So much has been written in the last twenty-four hours on the demise of Flight MS804 that there is little more to impart. It now seems likely the aircraft developed a catastrophic technical fault, causing it to crash into the Mediterranean Sea.
Information received from the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (see above) suggests smoke was detected, first in the aircraft’s toilet, then in the avionics (electrical systems) directly beneath the cockpit, shortly before the crash.[1]
Given the lack of any known claim of responsibility from terror groups, until a full investigation is completed technical failure is now the most likely cause of this disaster, which claimed the lives of sixty-six people.
The plight of MS804 is now ‘off the radar’ for most news outlets. The plane’s been located – at least part of it – and the evidence of fire on board has taken much of the mystery away, leaving major outlets with other matters to fill their front pages.
Life moves on. The work of assessing exactly what caused this crash will take many months, if not years. By the time we know for sure these last few days will be a distant memory for all, except of course, for the families and friends of the sixty-six who never came home.
The EgyptAir A320 Airbus designated Flight MS804 left Paris at 21.09 GMT. It was due to land in Cairo at 01.15 GMT. Twenty minutes prior to landing the plane made a series of abrupt course changes and disappeared from the Greek air traffic control radar that was tracking it.
General speculation suggests either a bomb, or catastrophic failure, caused the aircraft to crash into the Mediterranean Sea.
While the latter remains a remote possibility, the chances of it being a bomb seem equally unlikely. U.S. satellite sources state the aircraft could not have blown up, as the blast would have registered on their equipment. Also, historically, most explosive devices placed on airplanes have been timed to explode within an hour or so of take-off. Waiting until twenty minutes prior to landing could have caused the bomb not to explode until the aircraft was on the ground, had it arrived early at Cairo – a distinct possibility on a four hour flight.
Catastrophic failure is virtually unknown on an aircraft that has almost completed its flight. Take-off and landings are the times of most airframe stress, not at 37,000 feet and with the engines throttled back to cruising speed.
The pilot made contact with Greek ATC at 23.24 GMT, approximately 2 hours and 15 minutes into the flight. At 00.27 GMT Greek controllers failed to make contact with the plane, either on normal or emergency frequencies. Yet the plane was still being tracked by radar and appeared on a normal flight-path for a full 2 minutes and 40 seconds before it disappeared.
Egyptian radar lost track of the aircraft 20 seconds later, at 00.30 GMT.
According to the Greeks, the plane made an abrupt turn to the left before plummeting to 15,000 feet. At 10,000 feet they lose sight of it. ATC radar is designed to track aircraft at high altitudes, so it may be the aircraft dropped below radar level very quickly, but didn’t necessarily crash into the sea.
Of course, this is all speculation, but where is the wreckage? This is the Mediterranean Sea, not the wilds of the Southern Indian Ocean where MH370[1] supposedly crashed. It’s barely a mile deep in the Levantine Basin, where MS804 is alleged to have gone down. An aircraft plummeting from 37,000 feet into the ocean would break apart on impact, scattering debris over a wide area. Either the search aircraft and vessels aren’t proving very observant, or the aircraft isn’t where everyone says it is.
There is another option: a simulated crash. The aircraft is forced into a steep, spiralling, dive down to 10,000 feet, or probably less, to give the impression of a crash, before levelling out and ‘wave-hugging’ until reaching the coast of a designated country. Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, all border the Mediterranean in that area.
Even as this is being written debris of Flight MS804 could be pulled from the depths, and the mystery, at least partially, solved. Maybe the aircraft did crash somewhere in the Levantine Basin, but in an area of many local fishing communities, heavily trafficked, why did no-one see or hear anything as this aircraft came down? And why is the wreckage proving so difficult to locate?
A fatal crash, or a very clever hijacking? Only time will solve that mystery.
ADDENDUM: Sadly, it now looks like MS804 did indeed crash into the Mediterranean, with the loss of all on board. Reports are coming in of debris: seats, luggage, even body parts being found.
The remaining question is what caused this crash. Some experts are saying that the erratic course changes the plane made prior to being lost from radar, point to interference on the flight deck, rather than an explosive device:
Mike Vivian, former head of operations at the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority, told the BBC that the plane’s sharp manoeuvres before disappearing from radar were more likely to be caused by human interference than a bomb.
“It looks highly unlikely that this was consistent with some sort of explosive device,” he said.
“One’s inclined to go towards the theory that there had been some interference in the aircraft and on the flight deck, with the control of the aircraft.”[2]
If that’s the case, what sort of interference, and by whom? If, as one would anticipate, the cockpit door was locked and reinforced, then how could anyone gain access? Or, was the ‘interference’ by the pilot, or co-pilot?
There’s still a slight possibility that catastrophic failure, perhaps somewhere within the wing structure, may have caused the erratic behavior of the aircraft prior to it plunging to its doom in the ocean.
It may be a long time before these answers are known.
There’s a battle going on in the U.K.’s northern town of Hull. It’s all about toilets. A fast food chain, ‘Greggs’, regards itself as primarily a takeaway food establishment, but has a limited number of tables inside the premises for customers wishing to eat their purchases on site.
Hull City Council has determined that ‘Greggs’ is legally obliged to provide toilet facilities, given that some customers remain on the premises to eat. ‘Greggs’ says that’s rubbish. They maintain they’re a fast food outlet and as such are not required to provide said facilities. The case has gone to the court of appeal.[1]
To anyone living in France, the idea that laws could force a shop to provide toilets would be considered Nirvana. The standard of facilities, even in most large supermarkets, is nothing short of disgraceful. And that’s if they exist at all.
Public toilets, of the type found in town car parks or market squares, are even more diabolical. Filthy, cobweb-ridden, stinking of stale urine and other detritus, a visit to one of these places can leave one reaching frantically for hand disinfectant, as there’s no likelihood of working washing facilities in these dark, damp, hovels.
Admittedly, things have improved somewhat since the 1980s. The ‘hole-in-the-ground’ out the back is more of a rarity, though has certainly not disappeared completely.
It all makes travelling around France something of a fraught experience, particularly on Sundays and Bank Holidays when major supermarkets – the main source of these facilities – are closed. Then one can only hold on and hope that a public loo will eventually appear, though often they don’t. Even if one does turn up eventually, it’s generally at the point one is so desperate the poor state of the internal plumbing becomes irrelevant. A rusty bucket would suffice, so long as it was out of public view.
Why this state of affairs has been allowed to continue for so long in a modern, civilised, nation like France is not immediately obvious, but soon becomes so after one has lived here for a short while. This is still very much a male dominated country. French men are quite happy to relieve themselves whenever and wherever they feel the need arises. It’s not uncommon to drive along a busy highway and pass parked cars, drivers facing a convenient tree with their backs to traffic, doing what comes naturally. Who needs a public toilet when the whole countryside is available for one’s needs?
Which begs the question: what do the women do? The answer is not immediately obvious. French women apparently have more decorum than their male counterparts. One never sees a woman crouching behind a tree while waving to passing motorists.
It can only be assumed their holding power is much greater than that of the average Frenchman, and they stay home on Sundays and Bank Holidays.
So there you have it. The owners of Greggs fast food emporium in Hull have the perfect solution to the legal problems that are blighting their business. All they need to do is move their entire fast food empire to France.
No-one will ever demand they install toilets over here. And, even if some interfering French official tried, they’d only have to dig a hole in the backyard.
